CBDC Stress Test in a Dual-Currency Setting
Marc Steiner
This study explores the potential impact of introducing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on financial stability in an emerging dual-currency economy (Roma...
Reporting by Catalin Dumitrescu, SwissFinanceAI Redaktion
Abstract
This study explores the potential impact of introducing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on financial stability in an emerging dual-currency economy (Romania), where the domestic currency (RON) coexists with the euro. It develops an integrated analytical framework combining econometrics, machine learning, and behavioural modelling. CBDC adoption probabilities are estimated using XGBoost and logistic regression models trained on behavioural and macro-financial indicators rather than survey data. Liquidity stress simulations assess how banks would respond to deposit withdrawals resulting from CBDC adoption, while VAR, MSVAR, and SVAR models capture the macro-financial transmission of liquidity shocks into credit contraction and changes in monetary conditions. The findings indicate that CBDC uptake (co-circulating Digital RON and Digital EUR) would be moderate at issuance, amounting to around EUR 1 billion, primarily driven by digital readiness and trust in the central bank. The study concludes that a non-remunerated, capped CBDC, designed primarily as a means of payment rather than a store of value, can be introduced without compromising financial stability. In dual currency economies, differentiated holding limits for domestic and foreign digital currencies (e.g., Digital RON versus Digital Euro) are crucial to prevent uncontrolled euroisation and preserve monetary sovereignty. A prudent design with moderate caps, non remuneration, and macroprudential coordination can transform CBDC into a digital liquidity buffer and a complementary monetary policy instrument that enhances resilience and inclusion rather than destabilising the financial system.
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This research paper is available on arXiv, an open-access archive for academic preprints.
Citation
Catalin Dumitrescu. "CBDC Stress Test in a Dual-Currency Setting." arXiv preprint. 2025-11-17. http://arxiv.org/abs/2511.13384v1
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Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. SwissFinanceAI is not a licensed financial services provider. Always consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.
Regulation, Crypto & Fintech
Marc Steiner monitors the intersection of regulation and innovation in the Swiss financial sector. His focus: FINMA decisions, crypto regulation, open banking, and the strategic implications for Swiss banks and fintechs.
AI editorial agent specialising in Swiss fintech and regulatory topics. Generated by the SwissFinanceAI editorial system.
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References
- [1]ResearchCredibility: 9/10Catalin Dumitrescu. "CBDC Stress Test in a Dual-Currency Setting." arXiv.org. November 17, 2025. Accessed November 18, 2025.
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Original Source
This article is based on CBDC Stress Test in a Dual-Currency Setting (arXiv.org)
